One of the occupational hazards of being a writer
is that I tend to be something of a compulsive
reader, as well. I'll read just about anything:
from cheesy, schmaltzy romance novels to software
manuals, Molly Ivins to Miss Manners, Dear Abby
to Dostoevsky. (Tolstoy turned out to be a deal-breaker,
but at least I gave him a fair shot.) And you
don’t even want to get me started on the
Internet. As I said, anything and everything,
up to and including the labels on the cans of
whatever I find under the bathroom sink. (Well,
you have to have something entertaining to do
while you're in there!)
One of the most fascinating things I've read
in a very long time is an almost transcendentally
dull piece of work called the Rasmussen Report.
This is not an oxymoron; the Rasmussen Report
is without question the driest, coldest, most
passionless thing ever to be squeezed out of a
printing press (with the possible exception of
the liner notes for Michael Jackson's Bad LP),
and I was absolutely riveted by it. It was the
definitive page-turner. Why? Because the bottom-line
subject of the Rasmussen Report is death: yours,
mine, everyone's, in fact.
The Rasmussen Report is a compilation of probability
statistics. As such, it is almost by definition
boring to the nth power. To produce it, somebody
sat down with a computer and assorted documentation
– newspapers, death certificates, police
reports and the like – and calculated the
odds of being killed in a truly astonishing variety
of mishaps. Sort of a racing form for morticians,
as it were. Which segues rather nicely into the
next question, to wit: Who reads the Rasmussen
Report? Well, aside from people who spend a lot
of time in the bathroom, insurance companies do.
They use it to calculate premium rates for life-insurance
policies, taking into account such factors as
occupation, lifestyle, environment, and other
variables of that sort. Whenever anyone calculates
the odds on anything, you can be fairly certain
that somebody, somewhere, has a bet riding on
it. And the somebody in this case is your friendly
insurance company, a bunch of bookies in three-piece
suits in Hartford, Connecticut.
Did you know, for example, that the odds of
being killed in a nuclear power plant accident
are approximately three billion to one against?
Kind of makes you want to stop payment on that
check you wrote to Greenpeace, doesn't it? The
odds against being struck and killed by lightning,
according to Rasmussen, are a little over two
million to one. (Since the official odds of winning
the lottery are about one in twenty-five million
and change, if you plan to strike it rich playing
PowerBall, you might consider staying indoors
during thunderstorms.) This one ought to scare
you: every time you get into your car, there is
a one in three thousand chance that you will not
get out of it alive. And I suspect that there
is, in an often-overlooked footnote on the back
page of the Report, a probability statistic on
the odds of being bored to death by a book full
of probability statistics.
Despite its rather morbid subject matter, the
message of the Rasmussen Report is surprisingly
uplifting, even optimistic. It illustrates, in
precise, tabular format, that nothing in life
is without some element of risk; but it also illustrates
that the things that we as a culture get the most
bent out of shape worrying about are also the
things that are least likely to occur. We have
been giving ourselves ulcers, hypertension and
heart attacks by worrying about being killed in
an airplane crash (odds: three million to one
against), when the things most likely to kill
us are . . . ulcers, hypertension and heart attacks.
Life is a crap-shoot. And despite the anti-smoking
campaigners' incessant use of the phrase, there
is no such thing as a 'preventable death'. Our
current obsession with fitness and diet may postpone
the day of reckoning for a few years, but then
again, it may not. (Jim Fixx comes irresistibly
to mind in this context, but not being the I-told-you-so
sort, I think I’ll forego further comment.)
We are all going to die. If you don't believe
me, ask your doctor. Sooner or later, it's going
to happen; I guarantee it. So why is the message
of the Rasmussen Report optimistic? Because the
sooner we accept the fact that our trip through
this world will, inevitably, have to end (the
only questions being neat or messy; peaceful or
painful; inevitable, tragic, or Darwin Award candidate),
the sooner we can start to relax and enjoy the
ride.
There is a case to be made for quality of life,
as opposed to mere quantity of years. They say
Methuselah lived to be nine hundred forty-nine
years old, but I'm willing to lay some pretty
heavy odds of my own that the last eight hundred
fifty or so weren't a hell of a lot of fun. Lord
Byron, on the other hand, died within sight of
his thirtieth birthday, but if the reports are
to be believed, he had a rollicking good time
right up to the end. And at the time of his death
at the age of thirty-three, Alexander the Great
had conquered practically the entire known world.
(When you think about it, dying was probably the
only thing left for Alexander to do; once you've
conquered the world, what can you do for an encore?)
There are legions of people, organizations,
government agencies and assorted other busy-bodies
and buttinskis whose sole mission in life is to
keep me safe. With the blithely casual disregard
for my opinion on the subject that only a rabid,
drooling, mouth-breathing liberal can muster,
they are determined to protect me from every conceivable
risk in life, every danger that might befall me.
I wish they wouldn't. It’s not because it
is basically none of their business if I want
to go through a windshield head-first. (For the
record, I don’t, but it’s still my
call, not theirs.) And it’s not because
their efforts are, ultimately, futile. (See the
“We are all going to die...” paragraph,
above.) It’s because there is simply no
satisfying these people.
The only way to make the safety-mongers truly
happy would be to stay home: to quit my job (never
mind the stress, just ask OSHA, they will tell
you stories. . . !), stay inside my house, never
feel the sun on my face (gotta watch that ultraviolet
exposure!), never go anywhere (one in three thousand
chance I won't get there). But if I do that, the
radon will get me.
Or, I could take a walk down to the South Texas
Nuclear Project. In a thunderstorm.
keobanion0@eastex.net
Ken O'Banion is Application
Developer who works on a contractor basis for
companies mostly on the East Coast; he sometimes
refers to himself as an "itinerant rent-a-geek"
(although he's never had the nerve to put that
on the 'Occupation' line of his tax return).
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